IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told Bloomberg in an interview this week: “I could easily see 30 percent of jobs getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.”
That was the assessment this past week of IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, speaking to Bloomberg about generative AI systems ChatGPT—which IBM has acquired a stake in via its partnership with OpenAI.
IBM is also known for its “Watson” AI platform.
The tech giant has already signaled that it will use AI internally to replace workers, and has stopped hiring for jobs that are suitable for replacement, in addition to recently announcing layoffs for thousands.
The larger picture is that advanced AI systems that burst on the scene in late 2022 and captured public attention and sign-ups from millions of people, aren’t just for fun and games.
Through LLM (Large Language Model) and deep neural net learning (a kind of learning modeled on the human brain, these AI systems can access and present information on a scale and with a speed no average white collar worker can match.
And these systems can be automated via integration with other software to automatically engage in open-ended activities to achieve assigned goals.
Even relatively non-tech savvy users can use projects like AutoGPT (components and instructions available on Github) to automate ChatGPT.
There is currently debate over whether the advanced natural language AI systems represented by Google Bard, ChatGPT, and imagers like MidJourney, Stability.ai, and Dall-E (another OpenAI creation) will result in net job creation or job losses for humans.
Many feel that while some humans will thrive and learn to use the AI to create new businesses and ways of profiting, many workers will lose their jobs to AI—and the large corporations behind the most sophisticated and fastest advancing AI systems will by far profit the most.
Outmoded Jobs, Hi-Jacked Human Knowledge
Making predictions about what percentage of workers might be replaced by AI over the next five to 10 years has almost become a parlor game…make that a corporate boardroom game.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said AI could replace 300 million full-time jobs in that time frame, producing content indistinguishable from human work.
Indian news outlet telenganatoday.com quoted Carl Benedikt, a future of work specialist at Oxford University, saying “there is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI”. (“AI a bigger threat than automaton to millions of job-seekers,” 6 May 2023.)
Benedict, speaking to the BBC, noted programs like ChatGPT or Google’s Bard allow just about anybody to produce essays and articles that can replace blog writers and even journalists. He said that could drive down wages at the very least.
But the disruption goes much further. As The Trends Journal previously reported, researchers have identified hundreds of job positions in different sectors that are likely to face pressures from AI competition. (See “JOBS BEING TAKEN OVER BY AI RIGHT NOW,” 28 Feb 2023.)
Well before mainstream media began to focus on disruption represented by generative AI systems like ChatGPT and Dall-E, The Trends Journalforecasted and predicted the coming changes, in articles such as “AI IS LEARNING YOUR JOB” (24 May 2022) and “AUTOMATING OUT OF WORLD CRISIS?” (12 Jul 2022.)
We have also focused on the unfair and very possibly infringing use of huge data sets compiled from copyrighted and legally protected human creative content that these AI systems very likely were trained on.
We noted tech corporations had found a way to hoard profit and power from practically the whole of human knowledge in an unprecedented way that cried out for new legal frameworks. (See “CREATIVE CONTENT INFRINGEMENT OF DEEP LEARNING AI HAS MONUMENTAL IMPLICATIONS,” 7 Feb 2023.)
Soon after that article, on 16 March 2023, a group of industries and companies representing human creatives formed a “Human Artistry Alliance” to defend the intellectual property rights—and litigate on behalf of—humans whose work was used to train AI systems launched to the public by tech companies. (See “TOP TREND 2023, AI WE OWN YOU: HUMAN ARTISTRY CAMPAIGN OUT TO PRESERVE RIGHTS OF HUMAN CREATIVES,” 21 Mar 2023.)
That initiative has been busy adding membership in preparation to fight against the alleged infringements of deep-learning neural-net AI systems.
In a 6 April press release, the organization stated:
“After a widely-acclaimed launch at South by Southwest® (SXSW®), the Human Artistry Campaign has grown nearly 50% to 70+ worldwide members in just its first two weeks. Collective support among the newest members spans across journalism, photography, and voice actors as well as major global organizations representing songwriters, composers, publishers, and independent music. With this rapid growth, the coalition is even further poised to speak authoritatively on how AI can develop in ways that strengthen the creative ecosystem while continuing to recognize the unique and irreplaceable role of human artistry in culture and the arts.”
Meanwhile, broader concerns about the growing sophistication and power of AI led Elon Musk and thousands of others, including many professionals working in the field of AI, to sign on in late March to a “Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter,” issued by a group called Future of Life Institute. (See “AN AI PAUSE WON’T CUT IT: REJECT SCIENTISM OR BRACE FOR A POST HUMAN FUTURE,” 4 Apr 2023.)
Biden Appoints VP Kamala Harris as “AI Czar”
Despite these recent initiatives, The Trends Journal has chronicled and predicted that the world was largely being caught flat-footed by under-the radar advances not only in “productivity” forced generative AI systems, but in the far flung quest of AI scientists to create so-called “strong AI” or a “Singularity” moment.
That quest, which seeks to develop sentient, autonomous AI that can outperform human capabilities in every respect, has been detailed in such articles as “SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY: FUELING AI ASCENDANCE” (3 Aug 2021) and “MICROSOFT ANNOUNCES GLOBAL AI “SINGULARITY”(1 Mar 2022).
This past week the Biden Administration, reacting to startling mainstream uptake and awareness of AI, appointed Vice President Kamala Harris to act as an AI Czar overseeing government assessments and recommendations regarding AI development.
Harris was reportedly meeting with major tech companies including Google, OpenAI and Microsoft.
“AI is one of the most powerful technologies of our time, but in order to seize the opportunities it presents, we must first mitigate its risks,” the Biden administration said, according to Breitbart.
The White House announcement concerning Harris added:
“President Biden has been clear that when it comes to AI, we must place people and communities at the center by supporting responsible innovation that serves the public good, while protecting our society, security, and economy.”
For related reading, see:
● “FALSE EQUIVALENCE: CHATGPT DOESN’T LEARN CONTENT LIKE HUMANS, AND CRIES OUT FOR NEW IP LAWS” (21 Mar 2023)
● “TOP TREND 2023, AI WE OWN YOU: 90 PERCENT OF ONLINE CONTENT WILL LIKELY BE GENERATED BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BY 2025” (24 Jan 2023)