Top money managers in the U.S. are betting that Joe Biden will defeat President Trump in 2020 and say a Biden victory would mean losses at the stock exchange.
The Financial Times reported last week that the poll was taken in September. The report said 60 percent of 91 investment professionals have projected a Biden win. Many national polls show Biden maintaining a healthy lead on Trump despite critics who say he should be out campaigning more and the president making inroads in the Latin community. Their first debate is set for this evening, which is expected to touch on topics such as the coronavirus outbreak, the economy, and President Trump’s decision to fill the Supreme Court seat left behind after Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death.
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research at JPMorgan, said the winner of the election may not be determined for weeks after Election Day. The paper said that if Trump is confirmed the winner on Election Day, investors predict a bounce in the stock market.
On the other hand, if Democrats win all chambers of Congress and the presidency, 60 percent of those polled said the stock market would become bearish, and industries such as the energy sector would take the biggest hits. The report said two-thirds say companies focused on green initiatives will likely see gains.
Rebecca Felton, a senior market strategist at Richmond, VA-based RiverFront Investment Group, told the website MarketWatch that many investors will be glued to the television to get a sense of where the candidates stand on specific issues as they relate to the economy.
The FT reported that 48.4 percent of those polled say the GOP will keep the Senate and 88.5 percent say Democrats will keep their majority in the House.
MarketWatch reported that many investors see a more positive reaction on Wall Street in the event of a Trump victory because he would keep his 2017 corporate tax cuts in place and push for infrastructure spending.
“If we have a Democratic administration come in, typically we would say that’s not going to be as favorable for business… but I can’t imagine we’re going to see huge changes that we think would affect the economy when the economy is suffering so much from COVID,” Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Houston-based Crossmark Global Investments, told the website.
TREND FORECAST: Tonight’s first of three Presidential Reality Show® debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be a significant element in determining who wins the race for President.
Biden has had a bumpy debate road, coming up short in his 1987 and 2007 presidential runs. As Barack Obama’s running mate, however, he beat out his Vice Presidential challengers of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in 2008 and Representative Paul Ryan in the 2012 White House Race.
This debate and the two others will be especially critical for Donald Trump, since he is behind in the polls.
The Presidential Reality Show® champion, we forecast, will do all he can to deliver knockout punches on Biden in this and the next two debates.
