Long before today, the campaigns for President Trump and Joe Biden were preparing for a drawn-out legal fight if the election is too close to call even weeks after today.
We forecast this will be the most litigious fight for the Presidency in modern history. The New York Times reported in July that there had already been about 130 pandemic-related election lawsuits from 1 January to 23 October… tripled on average between 1996 and 2018.
While the Trump team won some cases that involved setting Election Day deadlines for absentee voting in some states, it lost cases involving expanding the access to some of these ballots. The virus has put a new focus on mail-in ballots. In Texas alone, as of last Sunday, nine million people voted, which surpassed the total vote in 2016.
The Financial Times reported the two campaigns have set aside tens of millions in the event they need to hire lawyers to litigate a contested election. Crucial states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin cannot begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day.
Joseph Sandler, the former General Counsel for the Democratic National Committee, told the FT that campaigns have been in contact with top-flight law firms in Washington, DC and lawyers on the state level.
“It’s fair to say that everybody who knows this stuff has been engaged,” he said, according to the paper.
TREND FORECAST: As of Sunday, some 96,660,000 million people have already voted. This is two-thirds the total (136.5 million) who voted in 2016’s Presidential Reality Show®.
With an eligible registered voter population of 239,247,182, we forecast the 2020 election is on track for one of the largest turnouts, especially among rural area voters who will be strongly in favor of President Trump. They are less inclined to fight in the COVID War and support opening up the economy, which Trump wants to do… as opposed to Biden calling for federal mask wearing mandates and possibly more lockdowns.
The polls still show a solid Biden Victory:
Joe Biden leads President Trump by double digits
nationally, USC poll suggests
“Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by double digits nationally — 54% to 43% in the poll’s daily tracking, a margin that has remained almost unchanging since summer.” – Los Angeles Times, 2 November
President Trump Trails Joe Biden by 10 Points
Nationally in Final Days of Election
“Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Mr. Trump, 52% to 42%, in the poll’s final reading of voter opinion before Election Day, essentially unchanged from Mr. Biden’s 11-point advantage in mid-October. In particular, women and seniors have turned against the president, the poll finds, with both groups favoring Mr. Biden by double-digit margins.” – Wall Street Journal, 1 November.
Again, despite these poll numbers, we forecast a Trump victory or an election that is too close to call.
Yes, we know we are going against the odds, and we may be wrong.
We base our forecast on President Trumps’ unrelenting campaigning until the last hour, the inaccuracy of polls in the past, and what we believe to be a silent majority who are uncomfortable saying they support Trump.