It’s summertime, and the living is easy. 

Much of the world, particularly those in the northern hemisphere, is in a summer state of mind. 

What in the world is going on is not on their mind, and even if they were tuned into what imbeciles and morons call “news,” they would just be hearing what the Presstitutes are feeding them. Journalism does not exist. The American media’s little boys and girls get press releases from their Washington whore masters… and go with it. 

Citing the continuing escalation of federal, state, and city debt and a “steady deterioration in standards of governance” since the 2001 War on Terror, two weeks ago Fitch downgraded the United States government’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA. 

Ask the average person about this and their response will be, “What’s a Fitch?”

Today, Fitch warned that turbulence is shaking the U.S. banking industry which risks dozens of downgrades including the “Bigs” such as JPMorgan Chase.

And last week, CNBC reported that “Moody’s downgraded the credit rating on several regional banks, including M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial, citing deposit risk, a potential recession, and struggling commercial real estate portfolios. The credit agency also placed the Bank of N.Y. Mellon and State Street on review for a downgrade,” from the highest possible rating. The new rating is still well into investment grade.

TRENDPOST: All this is old news to Trends Journal subscribers. When politicians launched the COVID War back in 2020, we had forecast that their pumping in several trillion dollars to artificially inflate the economy—which was dying as a result of their draconian lockdown mandates—and the Federal Reserve bringing interest rates to zero to artificially prop up equities, M&A’s, housing market, etc., would prove disastrous. Not only would inflation spike as a result of the cheap money flow, their COVID War policies had inflicted unprecedented economic damage that would not recover. And the biggest of the busts yet to come is the Office Building Bust. 

And now, after being ignored by the media despite our forecast some three years ago, as reported by The Wall Street Journal today, MSCI Real Assets showed that “the volume of distressed commercial real estate grew by $8 billion in the second quarter, reflecting the rise in cases in which the owners defaulted or lenders foreclosed, according to [the] data provider. That is the biggest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2020.” 

Already down some 15 percent from their pre-COVID War values, the commercial property sector—from office buildings, malls and apartment complexes—will continue their decline. As we have been forecasting, with interest rates rising, not only would depositors take their money out of banks and invest their money in market funds and high-yielding Treasuries, but more importantly, the socioeconomic and geopolitical damage inflicted upon humanity by politicians who launched the COVID War, would also devastate much of the banking system:

• “SPECIAL REPORT: THE BANKSTER BUST. ‘DOT-COM THIS’” (14 Mar 2023)
• “ACCIDENTAL BANKING SYSTEM FAILURE? DON’T YOU BELIEVE IT.” (14 Mar 2023)
• “ECONOMIC UPDATE—MARKET OVERVIEW” (21 Mar 2023)
• “SPECIAL REPORT: THE BIG BANKSTER BUST CONTINUES” (21 Mar 2023)
• “SPECIAL UPDATE: THE BIG BANKSTER BUST” (28 Mar 2023)
• “AMERICAN CONFIDENCE IN BANKS TAKES HIT” (28 Mar 2023)
• “SPOTLIGHT: BIG BANKSTER BUST” (9 May 2023)
• “U.S. BANKING CRISIS: NOT OVER YET?” (9 May 2023)

And as borrowing costs rise along with interest rates and floating-rate debt rises higher, the commercial real estate bust will grow louder. 

Unable to service their debt at the high rates, property owners will sell out and/or bailout, leaving the debt load on the banks… which will increase the bank failure trend. 

• “TOP TREND 2023: OFFICE BUILDING BUST: OFFICE OCCUPANCY HALF OF WHAT IT USED TO BE”  (7 Feb 2023) 
• “TOP TREND 2023, OFFICE BUILDING BUST: THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FACE OFF” (28 Mar 2023) 
• “SPOTLIGHT: OFFICE BUILDING BUST” (18 Apr 2023) 
• “TOP TREND 2023: OFFICE BUILDING BUST: PRICE OF HEDGING INTEREST RATES WALLOPS OFFICE LANDLORDS” (9 May 2023) 
• “SPOTLIGHT, TOP TREND 2023: OFFICE BUILDING BUST” (16 May 2023)
• “TOP TREND 2023: OFFICE BUILDING BUST” (13 Jun 2023) 

Bankster Bandits

Further illustrating how the system is rigged for the Bigs and the criminality of what Americans call a political system, once again, Wall Street on Parade’s article today details the facts:

Wall Street Mega Banks and Their Disgraceful Bailout Charts Since the Repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999

The Bill Clinton administration’s repeal in 1999 of the 1933 Banking Act, commonly known as the Glass-Steagall Act, ushered in the greatest kleptocracy America has ever known.

The Cambridge dictionary defines “kleptocracy” as: “a society whose leaders make themselves rich and powerful by stealing from the rest of the people.” In fact, the actual goal of repealing Glass-Steagall was to do just that.

Explaining in detail how the repeal of Glass-Steagall enriched the richest of “The Club,” WSoP also details how the “Bigs” got bigger and how the Feds made sure they got what they wanted: “A Government Accountability Office (GAO) audit revealed in 2011 that the Federal Reserve had secretly pumped $16 trillion in cumulative loans at almost zero interest rates to Wall Street banks and trading houses from December 2007 to July 2010.”

In summary, WSoP makes it clear who is in charge and how the Bankster Bandits are running the freak show called a “democracy.”

For more than a decade, Wall Street On Parade has reported on how this revitalized kleptocracy has plundered wealth from the little guy into the pockets of the 1 percent while simultaneously creating a no-law zone around itself with private justice systems, captured regulators, corrupted courts and a Congress that now marches to the beat of corporate campaign money instead of to the will of the people.

Pointing out that the banksters were hit with 351 legal actions with some $200 billion paid out in fines and legal settlements, they note that “Americans no longer recognize their ‘democracy’ because its soul has been crushed by the kleptocrats.”

Broken China

Tracking trends is the understanding of where we are and how we got here to see where we are going. For over a decade, The Trends Journal has forecast that the 20^th century was the American century, but the 21^st would be China’s. 

While we maintain our forecast, thanks to Beijing’s three years of intensely fighting the COVID War, its transition to #1 world economy has been dramatically delayed. As we have noted, its three years of zero-COVID policy destroyed the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions. And, even before the COVID War, the nation faced a downturn being that it was massively overbuilt, saddled with heavy debt-burdens and manufacturers were leaving for cheaper labor markets.

Thus, their zero COVID policies made a very bad situation very worse. 

From imports and exports, to industrial production, real estate, retail sales, etc., week after week we have been reporting China’s weak economic data. Today, its National Bureau of Statistics reported that the nation’s industrial production was up just 3.7 percent this July compared to last year and down from June’s growth of 4 percent.

On the retail end, it is not happy days for either domestic companies or all those European and American companies that want to sell their products to Chinese consumers. Remember, all things are connected. Thus, the less the Chinese consumers spend, the fewer products are imported. Down from a 3.1 percent increase in June, July’s retail sales were up just 2.5 percent.  

TREND FORECAST: The world is on the precipice of the most critical socio-economic and geopolitical crisis in modern history. In the brainwashing school of the “establishment,” never, ever are “students” told that before great wars—such as World War II that began during the Great Depression and the ongoing War on Terror that began during the dot-com bust—much of the world was plagued with severely deteriorating economic conditions. 

Welcome to the present 

The migrant crisis is out of control as people across the planet risk their lives to escape the dire economic crisis, government corruption, crime and violence plaguing their country. 

War fires are spreading in Africa.

America, NATO and its allies keep spending hundreds of billions to keep bloodying the killing fields in the Ukraine War.

The Middle East Meltdown keeps heating up as civil war flames spread across Israel… while the United States steps up its confrontation with Iran and Syria, which Israel will join. 

As Gerald Celente says, “When all else fails, they take you to war.”

And, as we detail, the general public jerks off the worthless “click-porn” the mainstream media sells and does not have a clue of what is going on. And what they do know is only the propaganda they obediently swallow. 

If the people do not unite for Peace on Earth, we forecast the planet will descend to Hell on Earth.

What are you doing? Do you care? Or possibly you just see happy days on the near horizon. 

We see “Danger Ahead” and are donating and doing all we can to reverse this coming catastrophe with our support of www.OccupyPeace. Please do what you can: United We Stand, Divided We Die.

LAST WEEK: INVESTORS SEE HINTS OF TROUBLED ECONOMY AHEAD

U.S. equity markets sank last week as producer prices ticked up in July and the University of Michigan’s monthly poll of consumer sentiments showed shoppers’ mood slightly darker.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a 0.4-percent gain. The NASDAQ fell for the second consecutive week, the first time this year it has done so. It ended the week down 2.3 percent, burdened by what some analysts see as overly high valuations among the index’s heavy concentration of growth stocks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index slipped 0.6 percent over the five trading days.

“The increase in wholesale prices serves as a reminder that the data-dependent Fed isn’t ready to declare victory in its campaign to quell inflation,” Quincy Krosby, LPL Financial’s chief global strategist, told The Wall Street Journal.

Also, after a robust start to the year, “technology has lost momentum,” analyst Rob Anderson at Ned Davis Research, said to the WSJ. 

“Mega-cap weakness and valuations have the sector on a short leash.”

The yield on the 10-year treasury bond rose to 4.166 percent Friday after ending Thursday at 4.081 percent.

Comex gold for September delivery slid 1.2 percent down the week, trading at $1,912.20 at 5 p.m. U.S. EDT on 11 August. 

Brent crude oil for September delivery was virtually flat, adding $0.67 over the week to trade at $86.81 at 5 p.m. U.S. EDT on 11 August. West Texas Intermediate, which benchmarks U.S. domestic oil prices, eked out a 0.01-percent increase to $83.19.

Bitcoin added 1 percent over the week, edging up to $29,470.00 at 5 p.m. U.S. EDT on 11 August. 

Abroad, equity markets were largely negative.

The London FTSE 100 moved down 0.5 percent. The trans-European Stoxx 600 lost 0.02 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.4 percent, while South Korea’s export-dependent KOSPI index was virtually flat, losing 0.01 percent.

China’s markets remain unhappy with Beijing’s pace of aid for the economy. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gave up 2 percent. The mainland’s CSI Composite slumped 2.7 percent and the SSE Composite 2.6 percent.

YESTERDAY: DOW UP SLIGHTLY AS TRADERS CONSIDER RECENT ECONOMIC DATA

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 26.23, or 0.74 percent, to 35,307.63, and the S&P 500 was up 25.67, or 0.58 percent, to 4,489.72. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 143.48, or 1.05 percent, to 13,788.33. 

There is a growing feeling on The Street that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes will just create a soft economic landing… not too hard and not too deep. 

Karen Lynch, the CEO of CVS, told The Wall Street Journal that the store saw some volatility in June and signs of a potential recession. 

“We saw a little bit of pullback in consumer behavior,” she told the paper. 

The 10-year Treasury was up about 2 basis points on Monday to 4.187 percent, and the short-term Treasury increased by more than 6 basis points to 4.963 percent.

Elsewhere, London’s FTSE fell 17.01, or 0.23 percent, to 7,507.15, and the STOXX600 was up 0.69, or 0.15 percent, to 459.86. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1 percent to 3,154.16. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1 percent to 32,160.30. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell to 18,629.82. South Korea’s Kospi also fell 1 percent to 2,565.37.

TRENDPOST: The inflation numbers that were released last week showed a lower-than-expected rise (by one-tenth of a percent) which is incalculable in reality. 

OIL: Brent crude futures were down 60 cents, or 0.69 percent, to $86.21 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 68 cents, or 0.82 percent, to $82.51.

Walter Zimmerman, chief technical analyst with ICAP-TA, told Reuters the “problem is as China increasingly proves unable of getting out of its own way to the upside, much less leading the world economy, there’s not much else to lead things higher.”

Yahoo! Finance noted that oil has been on a seven-week run and WTI and Brent futures are both up by about $15 per barrel since 14 June.

“Oil dropped dramatically from over $80 to as low as $67 when the regional banking crisis hit, based on fears that it would trigger a recession. Oil has recovered as it has become clear that there is no imminent recession,” Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Management, told the news outlet in an email.

AAA also said Monday that the national average price of regular gasoline was $3.851 a gallon, which was up 3 cents since Sunday. The national average was $3.566 a month ago.

TREND FORECAST: As we note in this week’s issue, the U.S. is antagonizing Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major artery for the global oil supply. Any flash of violence between the two countries could have a significant impact on oil prices. 

GOLD: The price of the precious metal has been depressed with the notion that inflation in the U.S. will be stickier than hoped, and high interest rates will continue to strengthen the U.S. greenback. Spot and futures gold both fell between 0.30 percent and 0.40 percent, Kitco reported. 

TRENDPOST: The CME’s FedWatch tool says there’s an 88.5 percent probability that the central bank will keep interest rates where they are (between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent) after next month’s FOMC meeting. Gold prices will soar once the Fed takes its feet off the gas because the only reason the U.S. dollar is strong is because of interest rates. Once those sink, so will the dollar and gold will soar.

BITCOIN: The world’s most popular cryptocurrency was trading up $4, or 0.01, to $29,409.40 as of 8:30 p.m. ET—taking a steady position just below the $30,000-per-coin mark.

Joe DiPasquale, CEO of the crypto hedge fund BitBull Capital, told CoinDesk in an email Sunday that the new-found price stability “is a positive sign, indicating consolidation around these levels that can potentially support another leg up.”

TREND FORECAST: For the time being, the young juice flowing into cryptocurrencies has dried up. It will take an economic crisis of sorts to generate strong growth. Bitcoin is still in a stable range. 

TODAY: DOW DOWN MORE THAN 300 POINTS AS NEW BANKING WORRIES EMERGE, EYE ON FED

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 361.24, or 1.02 percent, to 34,946.39 and the benchmark S&P 500 was down 51.86, or 1.16 percent, to 4,437.86. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 157.28, or 1.14 percent, to 13,631.05.

There’s a growing belief on The Street that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, which supported a jump in bond prices. The yield of the long-term Treasury bond hit 4.23 percent today, which is the highest level for the year.

“The main factor driving yields higher was the prospect that the Fed would keep policy in restrictive territory for longer than previously anticipated…we’re continuing to see markets reappraise the policy path in a more hawkish direction,” Henry Allen, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, told Barron’s.

Neel Kashkar, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve president, said today, “The risk is that if inflation is not completely under control, and that we have to raise rates further from here, to bring it down, that they might face more losses than they currently face today. And these pressures could flare up again in the future.”

Elsewhere, London’s FTSE was down 117.51, or 1.57 percent, to 7,389.64 and the STOXX600 was down 4.29, or 0.93 percent, to 455.57. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei was up 178.98, or 0.56 percent, to 32,238.89 and South Korea’s Kospi was down 20.39, or 0.79 percent, to 2,570.87. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 192.44, or 1.03 percent, to 18,581.11. In China, the Shanghai Composite was down 2.25, or 0.07 percent, to 3,176.18 and the Shenzhen Component was down 75.42, or 0.70 percent, to 10,679.73.  

TREND FORECAST: Chris Wolfe, an analyst at Fitch, told CNBC in an exclusive interview that dozens of more U.S. banks could see their credit ratings downgraded—including Dimon’s JP Morgan, which “could potentially push some weaker lenders closer to non-investment-grade status.”

Gerald Celente has said since March—when banks like Silicon Valley Bank went under—that the banking crisis has just begun and will only be amplified when landlords can no longer make payments on their office-space leases and they default on them.

Indeed, our Trend Forecast on the banking crisis—and that its ramifications would linger —was completely ignored by the mainstream media. Instead, Presstitutes followed the marching orders from JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon who said the crisis was over. (See “ECONOMIC UPDATE—MARKET OVERVIEW”  2 May 2023 and “ECONOMIC UPDATE—MARKET OVERVIEW” 23 May 2023.)

Being that bullshit has its own sound, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon criticized Fitch’s decision to downgrade the U.S.’s long-term credit rating.

OIL: Brent crude was down $1.29, or 1.51 percent, to $84.90 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was down $1.53, or 1.85 percent, to $81.00. 

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters that when the banking sector gets shaky, oil prices get shakier “because it is so sensitive to interest rates, loans and the general health of the economy.”

TRENDPOST: Gerald Celente has long noted that China is a major factor in considering oil prices, and Beijing is in decline as a result of its three year zero COVID policy which has destroyed much of its economy… which we greatly detail in this and previous Trends Journals. Yet, the Energy Information Administration still believes there will be 2.2 million bpd demand increase by the end of the year. And should the Ukraine War and Middle East tensions increase, we forecast Brent Crude will spike well above $100 per barrel… which will bring down economies and equities. 

GOLD: The precious metal was down $10 an ounce, or 0.51 percent, to $1,901 as it faces pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and high Treasury yields. 

Edward Moya, senior market analyst of the Americas at OANDA, noted that U.S. retail sales jumped 0.7 percent last month, which suggests the “economy is not weakening and that’s going to force the Fed to keep the prospect of more rate hikes on the table.”

TRENDPOST: When it comes to gold prices, all eyes are on the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has been propped up by high-interest rates. Gold is considered a safe-haven asset and should be much higher given the state of the world. Once interest rates come down, so will the dollar, and gold will jump. It’s also worth noting that high Treasury yields make gold less attractive because it is a non-yielding asset. 

BITCOIN: The world’s most popular crypto was trading down $99.50, or 0.34 percent, to $29,305.90 as of 2:53 p.m. ET today. 

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist, told podcaster Scott Melker, the world is watching the Federal Reserve doing the “greatest rug pull” in liquidity ever with interest rate hikes and the price of bitcoin could suffer and be an indicator of a recession.

“Let’s picture ourselves in December. Recession’s kicking in. People are hoping the Fed will ease and they’ll probably going to say, ‘No we’re not, because we still see high inflation,'” he said.

“What was the biggest liquidity pump indicator, new technology ever for the last 10 years? Cryptos,” he said. “The best indication should be bitcoin and that’s where I’m looking for the bleeding occasion from bitcoin and it’s still kind of showing what I expected. It got up to near $30,000 and it’s just not been able to get much above there.”