Russia’s oil output crashed immediately after it invaded Ukraine and Western allies slapped sanctions on Russian exports. However, it since has risen, in May adding about 130,000 barrels a day to a total of 10.55 million as countries continue to boost imports to lower their own fuel prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported and...
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CENTRAL BANKS STILL FUMBLING POLICY
For more than a year, central banks called inflation “temporary” or “transitory,” waiting too long to raise interest rates while inflation soared far beyond their targets, and now are racing to catch up, hiking interest rates by startling amounts and at a rushed pace that push the global economy toward recession. That record was summarized...
HOW DID U.S. OFFICIALS GET INFLATION SO WRONG?
It has been relatively recently that U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and treasury secretary Janet Yellen have publicly admitted (sort of) that they misread inflation’s trajectory. They had projected that inflation would sink to their 2-percent target rate by the end of this year; they now see it at 4 percent by 2023 and...
YEN SLIDES FURTHER AS BANK OF JAPAN HOLDS TO NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE
Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) once again decided to hold its key interest rate at -0.10 percent and to continue its daily purchases of government bonds carrying a 0.25-percent yield. Today, the yen hit its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since October 1998. The decision to forcibly hold bond rates low and...
U.S. TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA IS BIGGER THAN REPORTED
One of Donald Trump’s successes as president was to reduce the U.S.’s trade deficit with China—but apparently not. The reason: the official figures fail to include “de minimis” shipments direct from China to individuals in the U.S. that have a value under $800, The Wall Street Journal noted. “De minimis” is a Latin term meaning...
WHEN THE ECONOMY FALLS JOBS GO WITH IT
Inflation and interest rate hikes are causing companies in every sector to lay off thousands of employees, a clear sign that a recession is coming. Rising mortgage rates and declining home sales are shrinking brokerages’ profits. Demand was 17 percent lower than expected in May. Compass is laying off 10 percent of its 4,800 person...
MOST CEOs EXPECT A RECESSION
Six in ten top corporate executives expect a recession within 12 to 18 months, according to a May survey by the Conference Board, and another 15 percent think one has already begun in the areas of the world in which they operate. Late last year, only 22 percent of executives polled expected a recession. A...
OIL SUPPLIES WILL STRUGGLE TO MEET 2023 DEMAND
Oil supplies risk failing to meet global demands next year, even though current high prices and slowing economies point to a shrinking market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week in its first forecast for 2023. This year’s 1.8-million barrel-a-day growth in demand comes from developed economies, the agency said, but rising demand among...
STOCKS DIVE ON RATE HIKES
The sudden spate of interest rate increases last week by central banks in Europe and the U.S. has sent stock prices tumbling in one of their worst performances since the COVID War began. The Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank, and the National Bank of Hungary all lifted rates last week the day...
CENTRAL BANKS IN EUROPE HIKE RATES, DOLLAR SINKS
On 16 June, several central banks in Europe suddenly raised interest rates, some without warning, after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its key rate the day before by three-quarters of a point. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its interest rate from -0.75 percent to -0.25, the bank’s first rate increase since 2007. Most analysts...