Generative AI could boost global productivity by 1 percent a year for the 10 years after the technology is widespread in the world’s economy, a period that will begin in the last half of this decade, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs Economic Research.
However, to begin reaping those rewards, companies will have to invest as much as $200 billion in infrastructure and electrical service, new versions of digital technologies, and human skills, ideally before 2026, the report added.
The U.S. is poised to collect most of those future rewards because of its leadership in AI technology, Goldman noted. In other tech-driven economies such as China’s, the impact will be less and come later.
Ultimately, investments in AI could reach as much as 2.5 to 4 percent of GDP in the U.S. and 1.5 to 2.5 percent in other nations, Goldman predicted.
Those investments will focus on four areas, Goldman said:
- companies that create and train AIs;
- businesses providing needed AI infrastructure, such as data centers;
- software developers creating AI-based applications;
- businesses that will benefit soonest and most strongly by adopting AI.
More than 75 percent of CEOs have told pollsters that AI is unlikely to significantly impact their companies or cut their payrolls over the next three years. However, most said AI will likely take on a significant role in their businesses between 2026 and 2036.
“If those timelines are correct, then AI adoption would likely start having a meaningful impact on the U.S. economy some time between 2025 and 2030,” Goldman’s report concluded.